The lottery in Probably Stolen is a weekly numbers draw. You buy tickets for about 25 Credits each from the Lottery Representative, who visits on Thursdays, six numbers from 1 to 49 are drawn on Friday night, and the results run in Saturday’s newspaper. The more numbers you match, the more you win, up to 1,000,000 Credits for all six.
There is a second game alongside it: scratch tickets, which pay out on the spot. Here is how both work, how to cash a winner and how luck changes the odds, as of patch 1.0.0.12. Questing Goose Studio has not published the lottery’s prices or prize table, so treat ours as a starting point and check the leaflet in game.
The Weekly Draw, Step by Step
- Wait for the first visit. On a normal run the Lottery Representative first shows up around day 18, and the first results come out around day 20.
- Buy tickets on Thursday. Each Lottery Ticket costs about 25 Credits and carries six numbers from 1 to 49.
- Read Saturday’s paper. The draw happens Friday night, and the newspaper prints the winning numbers.
- Cash any winner. Double-click a winning ticket to redeem it. Questing Goose Studio’s patch notes made winning lottery tickets redeemable immediately.
Each draw only checks that week’s tickets. A ticket that misses becomes an Old Lottery Ticket worth about 1 Credit.
The Prize Table
The game’s Lower Levels Lottery Information leaflet lists:
| Matches | Prize |
|---|---|
| 6 of 6 (jackpot) | 1,000,000 Credits |
| 5 of 6 | 100,000 Credits |
| 4 of 6 | 2,500 Credits |
| 3 of 6 | 300 Credits |
| 2 of 6 | 35 Credits |
Scratch Tickets
Scratchers are the quick version. The ticket’s own text says: “Scratch off at least 2 matching symbols to win a prize!” It also calls them “a popular form of gambling in the Lower Levels”, banned in the Upper Levels.
- Price: about 20 Credits.
- Where: the Lottery Representative brings five on each visit, and scavengers can sell them too. You can also turn one up on the Dumping Ground.
- Prizes: a matching pair pays about 10 Credits, or 30 for a pair of Nutrifruit. Three of a kind pays about 75, and three Nutrifruit about 350.
- Cashing in: double-click a winning ticket, or sell it back to the Lottery Representative.
How to Redeem Winners
You have three ways to turn a winning ticket into Credits:
- Double-click it in your inventory.
- Sell it to the Lottery Representative on a Thursday visit.
- Use the Commissary, whose “Redeem All Eligible” option cashes every winning ticket at once. Our food stamps guide covers getting to the Commissary.
How Luck Changes the Odds
Luck is the hidden stat that tilts random rolls, and it touches both games:
- Draw tickets. Luck sets the chance of a second winning combination being rolled, and positive luck keeps whichever pays your tickets more. A ticket keeps the luck you had when you bought it, so buy while lucky.
- Scratchers. Our Liquid Luck guide explains how luck can change a symbol and turn a loser into a winner.
- Starting perks. Patch 1.0.0.12 made the Lucky and Unlucky starting perks change luck by 15 instead of 5, on new runs.
- The Gambler’s Coin. You get it once after scratching 10 tickets. While you carry it, or keep it in your dossier since patch 1.0.0.12, it adds 5 luck and widens your scratch radius.
Does the Lottery Pay?
Not on average, if the draw is a fair 6-from-49 game. By our math, a ticket matches three numbers about once in 57 tries, four about once in 1,000, five about once in 54,000, and all six about once in 14 million. Add up the prizes and a 25-Credit ticket returns roughly 14 Credits on average, so you lose a bit over 40% of what you spend over time.
Luck narrows that gap but does not close it in the math above, so treat tickets as entertainment money, never rent money. The landlord is the real threat in this game, and our money guide covers steadier ways to stay ahead.
Gambling Addiction
The Gambling Addiction starting perk ties you to tickets. The developer’s patch notes say it makes you buy scratch tickets automatically, “including a stack of scratch tickets when possible”, and with it the lottery runs from day 1 instead of starting later. Our negative perks guide weighs whether the points are worth it.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the lottery drawn in Probably Stolen? On Friday night, with the winning numbers printed in Saturday’s newspaper.
Who sells lottery tickets? The Lottery Representative, who visits on Thursdays from around day 18 and also brings five scratch tickets each time.
How do you redeem a winning ticket? Double-click it, sell it to the Lottery Representative, or use the Commissary’s Redeem All Eligible option.
Does luck help with the lottery? Yes. Positive luck can give a ticket a better result, and a ticket keeps the luck you had when you bought it.
Is the lottery worth it? Not as income. On a fair 6-from-49 draw, a ticket returns well under its price on average, so play it for fun.